Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft))

Steve McConnell explains how software estimation is more a science than an art. Information in this books can applied 2 agile development as well 2 the classical approach. So if You struggle (I'm sure You do) with estimation, this is excellent book 4 You, it doesn't matter whether You are a developer or a manager.

Honesty, I was expecting very "soft" content, i.e., pages spent over-analyzing obvious points & so on. BUT this description could not be farther from the truth. In Software Estimation, McConnell draws on over a hundred published studies on the topic of software estimation as well as numerous case studies. The book is data driven & based on statistical techniques. McConnell emphases counting concrete project steps & comparing them with previous estimates where as intuiting off-the-cuff estimates is a major no-no.

I have just completed the reading. Not that, I didn't know estimation, nor that I was struggling 2 do a right kind of estimation. I am already fairly accustomed with standard tools & techniques in the world of professional software estimation. What I found appealing in this book is the approach towards estimation at the start.

Today, I was sitting in an informal discussion session with a bunch of college graduates who barely completed 1 year in this industry. It was an open discussion set, & one point came up on right estimation. Many of them had gone through 20 hour workday regimen during the difficult times of the project, & all of them were convinced that somebody did not do the estimation right. To explain that estimation is not that easy math work like a college paper, I started with a quiz: What's the latitude of Sanghai. And as I continued speaking on estimating the latitude of Sanghai, I found increasing number of approving nods all around the room. Happy me! It was not always the case where I found an immediate place 2 apply my book reading in past, that too with the nods of approval.

Coming back 2 the book, I will definitely recommend this book 2 all software project leaders & project managers 2 get a feel of the subject & how 2 address the problem at large. To gain deeper knowledge there are tons of research papers & books waiting 4 you, but if you are a busy professional, go through this book first.

Basic premise: that "the goal is software estimation is not pinpoint accuracy but estimates that are accurate enough 2 support effective project control. To that end, a "good estimate" is one that "provides a clear enough view of the project reality 2 allow the project leadership 2 make good decisions about how 2 control the project 2 hit its targets."

Software estimation is inherently nontrivial. The resulting product is virtually invisible until it is finished---and you rarely end up with the same product that you initially estimated anyway. Early on, requirements are difficult 2 state (and measure) precisely, & as Rittel stated "the true nature of the problem only emerges as a solution is developed."

Many PM's still believe that estimates are based on multiples of a gut feel. However, the ambiguous nature of software reality requires multiple & varied quantitative methods just 2 define the estimate space in terms of order of magnitude.

This book provides a basic & superficial description of a number of these methods, including how & when 2 best apply them. It is an excellent primer 2 reading other more exhaustive texts (such as Stutzke's Estimating Software-Intensive Systems) & an indispensable desk-reference 4 Program Managers, Project Managers & Parametricians. Highly recommended.

Despite the fact that most software developers consider themselves engineers or scientists, many mainly rely upon gut instinct 4 estimation rather than data. The material in this book enabled me 2 persuade my developers of the limits of gut instinct, 2 guide them 2 develop more quantitative methods & 2 help them predict the precision of their estimates.

Often referred 2 as the "black art" because of its complexity & uncertainty, software estimation is not as hard or mysterious as people think. However, the art of how 2 create effective cost & schedule estimates has not been very well publicized. While the average software organization can struggle with project costs that run double their original estimates, some of the more sophisticated organizations achieve results with estimation errors as low as 5-10%. These best-in-class organizations use scientific techniques that are not cost-effective, however, making them of limited use 2 most software development organizations. To address these issues, Software Estimation focuses on the art of software estimation & provides a proven set of procedures & heuristics that software developers, technical leads, & project managers can apply 2 their projects. Instead of arcane treatises & rigid modeling techniques, award-winning author Steve McConnell gives practical guidance 2 help organizations achieve basic estimation proficiency & lay the groundwork 2 continue improving project cost estimates. This book is organized from simple tips 2 more advanced ideas; it does not avoid the more hairy mathematical estimation approaches, but the non-mathematical reader will find plenty of useful guidelines without getting bogged down in complex formulas.